Cox Raises 2026 U.S. New-Vehicle Forecast to 16.1 Million

Why it matters

A higher national forecast supports firmer fourth-quarter volume planning, but it does not justify a blanket increase in inventory or advertising. Cox's own data show demand concentrated among more affluent buyers while affordability, fuel costs and borrowing rates continue to pressure other shoppers.

Dealers should use the revision as a market baseline, then compare it with local lead volume, close rate, inventory turn, lender approvals and payment-driven lost sales. The useful question is whether a store is participating in the market's resilience—not the exact size of the national forecast revision.

Cox also expects Asian brands to exceed half of U.S. new-vehicle sales for a second consecutive quarter while the Detroit 3 fall to just over 36% share. That mix shift makes franchise- and segment-level planning more important than the topline forecast alone.

September and third-quarter volume remain mixed

Cox forecasts September volume at 1.35 million vehicles, 6.5% above September 2025 but 2.7% below August 2026. The projected September annualized sales pace is 16.3 million, below both August's 16.8 million pace and September 2025's 16.6 million pace.

The year-over-year volume increase is affected by one additional selling day and Labor Day moving into September's reporting period this year. Dealers should normalize comparisons by selling day and avoid presenting the 6.5% estimate as a like-for-like demand increase.

Third-quarter volume is forecast at 4.12 million, down 0.7% from a year earlier and 2.9% from the second quarter. The stronger full-year outlook therefore reflects accumulated resilience through the year rather than an acceleration in every current measure.

Credit access is improving while borrowing costs remain high

Cox's forecast presentation says its new-loan credit index rose from 102.8 a year earlier to 112.0 in August, reflecting greater lender willingness to finance negative equity, lower down payments and longer terms.

That access comes with a cost. Cox reported an average new-auto loan rate of 9.93% in August, up from 9.24% a year earlier, and said September was tracking above 10% at the time of the presentation.

For F&I and sales teams, improved approval odds should not be confused with improved affordability. Stores should track approval rate, term, advance, negative equity, cash down and payment-to-income together rather than celebrating approvals that require materially longer or more expensive contracts.

Record September payments keep affordability in view

JD Power projects an average September transaction price of $45,915 and an average monthly payment of $821, up 3.2% from a year earlier. The firm's projected average interest rate slips four basis points to 6.66%, but that change is not enough to offset higher prices and weaker trade equity.

Longer terms are carrying more of the payment burden. JD Power expects 13.9% of new-vehicle loans to run 84 months or longer, up two percentage points from September 2025, and projects that 29.4% of trade-ins will carry negative equity.

Those figures are national forecasts, not underwriting rules or outcomes for every buyer. Finance teams should use current lender decisions and verified deal-level information rather than treating the averages as approval benchmarks.

Cox's prior forecast baseline is inconsistent across its releases

Cox's September 24 press release says the 16.1 million outlook was raised from 15.8 million. Its September 2 forecast update, however, described the then-current full-year forecast as 15.9 million. Cox's current materials confirm the new 16.1 million figure but do not reconcile those earlier baselines.

The discrepancy changes the stated size of the revision, not the current outlook. Dealership Tech Report therefore reports 16.1 million as the confirmed new forecast without presenting either earlier figure as the sole baseline.

The lease outlook moved in the opposite direction

Cox kept its 2026 new-lease volume forecast at 3 million but lowered expected lease penetration to 23%. The company linked the pressure to the loss of the federal EV tax credit.

Stores should recheck model-level lease competitiveness, captive support and payment differences instead of assuming the stronger overall sales forecast will lift every lease program. A revised national lease share does not determine the best structure for an individual customer.

What dealerships should do now

Use the 16.1 million to 16.3 million September sales pace as a planning range, not a final industry result or a store-level target. Separate selling-day and Labor Day timing effects from actual changes in traffic and close rate.

Track approval rate together with APR, term, cash down, advance, monthly payment and negative equity. Compare inventory turn and incentive dependence by powertrain and price band before changing fourth-quarter stocking targets.

Refresh plans when final September manufacturer and industry results are available, and keep local allocation, lead, gross and turn data ahead of national share estimates when making model-level decisions.

AI-assisted reporting disclosure

This article was researched and generated with AI-assisted systems using the Cox Automotive and JD Power materials listed below. Dealership Tech Report applies automated accuracy and risk checks, but forecasts and preliminary monthly estimates can change. Verify current programs, lender terms and final sales data before acting.